Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Sertorius and America’s Ultimate Defeat.

HE is not given to predictions – maybe because most that HE makes are based on a gut instinct and common sense, so rarely has HE been wrong when making one. HE’s best was on German reunification back in 1989, months before it happened.

Ahem . . . My prediction today is this:

Sertorius is noted by military historians as one of the so-called “founders” of guerilla warfare. Pompey, to finally deal with him, had to resort to the dubious (and for the Romans dishonorable) C.I.A. method of suborning disaffected lowlifes to procure Sertiorius’ assassination.

(NB – if you are NOT following me it’s because you’ve not read Plutarch’s Life of Sertorius . . . FOR SHAME!!!!)

Now Sertorius’ guerilla movement – as most successful guerilla movements – was based on an indigenous discontent with Roman rule in Spain; for some reason which I cannot possibly understand, native populations do NOT appreciate being invaded by force and then told how to live. Sometimes they resort to violence. Since they are on their home turf and know the culture and terrain, often they are successful.

So a prediction; the U.S. will leave Iraq with nothing to show but the shifting alliance of a Shiite Super state and enormous rage against us that will result in terrorism on our shores. You can’t stop it. And a second prediction: Israel will be forced to leave Lebanon. They cannot deal with a native insurrection. Moreover if they continue to behave foolishly (and we continue to act as chief enabler), well . . . need we spell out the potential consequences? One must learn to tread very carefully in a burning building, and neither the Americans nor the Israelis have learned this apparent lesson.

Part of being tough is also being wise. One should choose one’s battles selectively; not every situation has a Perpenna to resolve it (look it up!).



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